In May, the year-on-year increase of us CPI hit a new high in 40 years. The inflation previously expected by the market peaked and burst. The strong CPI data provided more room for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates aggressively.
According to Antaike, the refineries of copper southeast copper, Tongling Jinguan copper and Guangxi Nanguo copper will enter the maintenance stage in mid June. However, with the production recovery of the early maintenance refineries and the release of jianfaxiangguang copper, the domestic electrolytic copper output will increase significantly in June. Copper imports were in a deficit situation this week, and the amount of copper from Shanghai port was small. According to Mysteel, some overseas copper in the port has not been warehoused, but has chosen to enter China through customs clearance directly. As a result, the domestic social inventory has increased, and the inventory in the bonded area has maintained a slight downward trend.
On June 9, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 88900 tons, an increase of 14200 tons compared with June 2. The copper inventory in the Shanghai free trade zone was 201000 tons, a decrease of 8000 tons compared with the second day. The recovery of domestic output and the inflow of imported copper may gradually increase the inventory pressure.
This week, the spot premium in Shanghai was first suppressed and then raised. As of the 10th, the spot premium was reported at 145 yuan / ton, and the monthly difference back structure has converged. With the arrival of the off-season demand and the gradual increase of inventory pressure, it is expected that the future trading atmosphere will be weak, and the spot discount shipment may become the mainstream. The implied volatility of copper options continued to weaken this week. On June 10, the implied volatility of options with the underlying futures contract cu2207 was 13.79%, and the exercise price was mainly concentrated at 70000, the same as last week.
On the whole, the copper market is facing the pressure of macro short and inventory increase, and the copper price may be corrected to some extent. In terms of strategy, it is suggested to be mainly empty.
Post time: Jun-14-2022