1、 Market review and operation suggestions

The copper price fluctuated strongly. As the monthly difference narrowed, the increase of arbitrage buying in the domestic spot market led to the recovery of spot premium. The import window was closed, and the fine waste price difference rebounded. The spot market was still supported by low inventory. The lme0-3back structure widened, the after hours inventory increased by 1275 tons, and the tightening trend of overseas spot remained unchanged. The current domestic demand recovery is not expected to change, and the global low inventory continues to support the copper price. On the macro level, the interest rate discussion meeting of the Federal Reserve is progressing gradually. At present, the market has been expected to raise interest rates by 50bp in June and July respectively. The focus of this meeting is on how the Federal Reserve plans the path of interest rate increase in September, November and December. At present, the US dollar index is standing near the pressure level. The market is waiting for the US CPI in May on Friday, which is less likely to exceed the expectation, thus cooling down the future interest rate increase. It is expected that the US dollar index will be difficult to break through the pressure level, which will benefit non-ferrous metals. Supported by fundamentals and macro aspects, copper prices are expected to start an upward trend.

2、 Industry highlights

1. On June 9, the General Administration of Customs of the people’s Republic of China released data showing that China’s imports of copper ore sands and concentrates in May were 2189000 tons, and China’s imports of copper ore sands and concentrates from January to May were 10422000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products in May was 465495.2 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to May was 2404018.4 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%.

2. the combination of multiple factors promoted the import and export recovery in May, and the short-term export growth rate may maintain double digits. The data released by the Customs on Thursday showed that China’s total import and export value in May was 537.74 billion US dollars, an increase of 11.1%. Among them, the export was 308.25 billion US dollars, an increase of 16.9%; Imports totaled 229.49 billion US dollars, an increase of 4.1%; The trade surplus was US $78.76 billion, an increase of 82.3%. Market participants pointed out that the current national supply chain and production chain are gradually restored, providing a guarantee for export supply. In addition, in May, the periodic depreciation of RMB exchange rate, the supporting effect of price factors on exports, and the superposition of low base effect jointly promoted the restorative growth of exports in May.